As Deputy President William Ruto and Azimio candidate Raila Odinga sprint to the finish line on August 9, the presidential race appears to be hanging in the balance.
Raila had a modest lead in the last opinion survey, but the current Radio Africa poll puts Ruto ahead again, with 45.5 percent to Raila’s 41.3 percent.
The most recent poll made advantage of innovative SMS technologies. It took place between April 1 and 13, 2022, with 4,497 respondents from all 47 counties weighted to represent the November 2021 IEBC register.
The survey was funded by the Radio Africa Group and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.
“We are extremely convinced that this polling system is highly accurate as well as speedier than traditional CATI or face-to-face polling,” said Joshua Oluoch, the Radio Africa Group’s Head of Research.
Ruto had a substantial advantage against Raila in July, with 42.7 percent to 14.2 percent.
However, that lead has steadily dwindled, and in March, a Radio Africa survey put Raila in a tiny lead.
Raila received 47.4 percent of the vote, while Ruto received 43.4 percent of the vote as the voters’ favorite presidential candidate.
Raila and the Azimio team have been working hard over the previous six months to narrow Ruto’s lead, with increasingly overt assistance from President Uhuru Kenyatta and the government.
According to recent polls, the August 9 election will be a two-horse fight.